My Generation
Leading Economist Forecasts
More Jobs Than Workers in Coming Years
Significant Labor Shortages Expected by 2018; Workers Over 55 Will Be Key to Closing the Gap
As surprising as it sounds in the current employment market, a renowned labor economist projects that there will be more jobs than people to fill them in the United States by 2018.
Assuming a return to healthy economic growth and no change in immigration or labor force participation rates, Barry Bluestone, Dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, predicts that within the next eight years there could be at least 5 million potential job vacancies in the United States, nearly half of them (2.4 million) in social sector jobs in education, health care, government and nonprofit organizations. The loss in total output could limit the growth of needed services and cost the economy as much as $3 trillion over the five-year period beginning in 2018.
“If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the baby bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs," states Bluestone's report titled, “After the Recovery: Help Needed - The Coming Labor Shortage and How People in Encore Careers Can Help Solve It.” Bluestone's analysis builds on the 2008 MetLife Foundation/Civic Ventures Encore Career Survey, which shows that most people expect to work longer than previous generations, but that half of those aged 44 to 70 want encore careers that combine personal meaning, continued income and social impact. "Not only will there be jobs for these experienced workers to fill," Bluestone writes, "but the nation will absolutely need older workers to step up and take them."
The research identifies 15 jobs that will provide the largest number of potential new career opportunities in the coming decade. The list is dominated by seven job categories in health care (registered nurses, home health aides, personal and home care aides, nursing aides, orderlies and attendants, medical assistants, licensed practical and vocational nurses, and medical and health service managers); three in education (teachers, teacher assistants and child care workers); others in nonprofits and government (business operations specialists, general and operations managers, and receptionists and information clerks), plus clergy, social and human service assistants.
“If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the baby bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs."
Bluestone's paper is one of three other studies that suggest those over 55 have the skills and experience to help solve serious problems and to bridge critical labor gaps in education, health care and the green economy. The paper, “How Boomers Can Help Improve Health Care: Emerging Encore Career Opportunities in Health Care,” outlines new approaches to care and staffing that can help people stay healthier and lower costs. Their research identifies six emerging jobs for experienced workers that have the potential to improve health outcomes: community health workers, chronic illness coaches, medications coaches, patient advocates, home- and community-based service navigators/advocates and home modification specialists.
The papers, co-authored by Mark Melnik, Deputy Director for Research at the Boston Redevelopment Authority, is based on official forecasts of population growth from the U.S. Census Bureau, forecasts of job growth and labor force participation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and estimates of the number of jobs in specific occupations based on the Labor Market Assessment Tool developed by the Dukakis Center and the Boston Redevelopment Authority.