The Urban Institute recently published a report that says rising health care costs threaten boomers retirement security.

Authored by Richard W. Johnson and Corina Mommaerts, the report “Will Health Care Costs Bankrupt Aging Boomers?” says half of adults age 65 and older will spend at least 19 percent of their incomes on health care by 2040, up from 10 percent in 2010, if costs continue to grow at the intermediate rate projected by the Medicare trustees.

About 7 in 10 older Americans in the bottom two-fifths of the income distribution will spend more than 20 percent of their incomes on health care in 2040. These projections underscore the importance of controlling health care costs and the need for boomers to plan for future health care spending.

Although Medicare covers nearly all adults age 65 and older, premiums, deductibles, copays, and holes in the benefit package leave many with substantial out-of-pocket expenses.

Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, will reach age 66 to 84 in 2030 and age 76 to 94 in 2040. The baseline estimates assume that the current Medicare policies and employer benefit practices will continue.

The report also examines the likely financial burden of health care costs for boomers as they age. (The estimates exclude the cost of long-term care.) As many have observed, steady cost growth threatens to bankrupt Medicare and strain the federal budget, potentially crowding out other government priorities. The report suggests there are numerous ways to curb cost growth by improving the efficiency of health care delivery, often focusing on reworking financial incentives to reward effective and efficient care.

(The study can be read at: www.urban.org/publications/ 412026.html.)